More stats help

I have 2 vamps I really want in my opening crypt. 1 of which I Must have, the other one I would Really Like. So, should I go 4 of the Must have, 3 of the really want, and 5 others? Or can I get away with 4 of the 1, 2 of the other, and 6 others? Thanks, chris

[ quoted text not captured ] http://irafay.com/combo.php Kevin M., Prince of Las Vegas "Know your enemy and know yourself; in one-thousand battles you shall never be in peril." -- Sun Tzu, *The Art of War* "Contentment...Complacency...Catastrophe!" -- Joseph Chevalier Please visit VTESville daily! http://vtesville.myminicity.com/ Please buy my cards! http://shop.ebay.com/kjmergen/m.html

[ quoted text not captured ] As a general 12-card-crypt "rule" 5 = guaranteed one, probably 2 copies 4 = probably 1 copy, sometimes 2 3 = more than half the time 1, rarely 2 copies <3 = kinda whenever...

[ quoted text not captured ] 4/12 = 14% miss rate. 3/12 = 25% miss rate. 2/12 = 42% miss rate.

[ quoted text not captured ] There's no absolute guarantee unless you have 9 of the card in your crypt. With 5 of a card your crypt, there's still a 7% chance you won't draw the crypt card you want. Believe me, that 7% chance has reared its ugly head more than once in my opening crypt draw. Does anyone have a link to an article with the percentage chances?

Aaron Clark wrote: > Does anyone have a link to an article with the percentage chances? Excel has a formula to do it. HYPGEOMDIST

[ quoted text not captured ] Aaron, Sure, I'll concede that if you use the deck approximately 100 times you will have 7 times that you dont' draw the vamp you want, or 93 times that it does happen. For practical purposes, 5 should be near guaranteed. If it's a big trauma, you pay 1 to see 1 vamp and it will basically be there (drawing a card with 5 copies out of a remaining 8 is pretty darned good odds).

[ quoted text not captured ] Thanks Scott, and everyone else. I decided to go with 4 and 3 - 25% miss rate is acceptable... best - chris

Aaron Clark wrote: > Does anyone have a link to an article with the percentage chances? http://members.cox.net/kjm1971/VTES%20calculations.xls In addition to all the weird stuff I've put onto this spreadsheet, you can use the 'Chance to get Card' tab for these calculations. [ quoted text not captured ]

On Oct 15, 6:40 pm, Aaron Clark <aamacl...@gmail.com> wrote: > Does anyone have a link to an article with the percentage chances? Here's some tables I made years ago (using dc for fun). Also note that at 4 copies, the percentage chance goes up exactly the same for either adding additional copies or taking the same number of additional draws. This is, as you might expect, tied to the fact that you draw 4 to begin. Brent Ross =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Crypt 12 Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Init 33.3 57.5 74.5 85.9 92.9 97.0 99.0 99.8 1 draw 41.7 68.2 84.1 92.9 97.3 99.2 99.9 2 draw 50.0 77.2 90.9 97.0 99.2 99.9 3 draw 58.3 84.8 95.5 99.0 99.9 4 draw 66.7 90.9 98.2 99.8 5 draw 75.0 95.5 99.5 6 draw 83.3 98.5 7 draw 91.7 -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- =- Crypt 13 Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Init 30.7 53.8 70.6 82.4 90.2 95.1 97.9 99.3 99.9 1 draw 38.5 64.1 80.4 90.2 95.6 98.4 99.5 99.9 2 draw 46.2 73.1 87.8 95.1 98.4 99.6 99.9 3 draw 53.8 80.8 93.0 97.9 99.5 99.9 4 draw 61.5 87.2 96.5 99.3 99.9 5 draw 69.2 92.3 98.6 99.9 6 draw 76.9 96.2 99.7 7 draw 84.6 98.7 8 draw 92.3 -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- =- Crypt 14 Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Init 28.5 50.5 67.0 79.0 87.4 93.0 96.5 98.5 99.5 99.9 1 draw 35.7 60.4 76.9 87.4 93.7 97.2 99.0 99.7 99.95 2 draw 42.8 69.2 84.6 93.0 97.2 99.1 99.8 99.97 3 draw 50.0 76.9 90.4 96.5 98.9 99.8 99.97 4 draw 57.1 83.5 94.5 98.5 99.7 99.96 5 draw 64.3 89.0 97.3 99.5 99.95 6 draw 71.4 93.4 98.9 99.9 7 draw 78.6 96.7 99.7 8 draw 85.7 98.9 9 draw 92.9