Statistics Help

Hi In the upcoming storyline I am considering playing with Menele and his advancement. Now I don't think I will play Brujah, but some Liabon clan. Now my question is: Should I use 3 copies of menele (one of them adv.) and stay with a 12 card crypt size. Or should I increase my Crypt to 16 and use 4 copies of Menele. Which of the two gives me biggest chance of drawing him on my first round?

[ quoted text not captured ] When you need a vamp badly, 13/4 seems nice to me.

[ quoted text not captured ] 3/12 = 75% chance of seeing him in the opening 4. 4/16 = 73%

[ quoted text not captured ] Thanks Hum. Then a 3/12 crypt would prob be the best.

[ quoted text not captured ] 4 of 13 (as compared to 4 of 12) increases chance of seeing ONLY 1 copy (+1.7%) while increasing the chance of seeing none (+2.5%). Seems like a poor trade off

[ quoted text not captured ] But 4/13 would be an illegal crypt for the Storyline, wouldn't it? May need to go back and read storyline rules again... best - chris

[ quoted text not captured ] 3 in 12 = 74.55% 4 in 16 = 72.80% Kevin M., Prince of Las Vegas "Know your enemy and know yourself; in one-thousand battles you shall never be in peril." -- Sun Tzu, *The Art of War* "Contentment...Complacency...Catastrophe!" -- Joseph Chevalier Please visit VTESville daily! http://vtesville.myminicity.com/ Please buy my cards! http://shop.ebay.com/kjmergen/m.html

On Oct 14, 11:14 am, Baaliprimogen <vegardki...@gmail.com> wrote: > Thanks > Hum. Then a 3/12 crypt would prob be the best. Yeah, the general rule is: If you increase the size of the deck/crypt, you need a higher ratio of your key card to maintain the same level of consistency. Corollary: To maximize consistency, minimize the size of your deck/crypt where possible. Brent Ross

[ quoted text not captured ] I was comparing to 3 of 12. Seeing only one copy is fine for me and why I go to 13. I'd like to know how much my chances of seeing my guy are improved going from 3/12 to 4/13.

"Orpheus" <orpheus.13@NOSPAM@free.fr> writes: [ quoted text not captured ] Have some tables: j@salty:~$ deal -b 4 3 12 4 in initial hand, 3 specials out of 12 total D/S | 0 1 2 3 --------------------- 0 | 25 51 22 2 1 | 16 48 32 5 2 | 9 41 41 9 3 | 5 32 48 16 4 | 2 22 51 25 5 | . 12 49 38 6 | . 5 41 55 7 | . . 25 75 8 | . . . 100 j@salty:~$ deal -b 4 -g 3 12 4 in initial hand, 3 specials out of 12 total D/S | 0 1 2 3 --------------------- 0 | 100 75 24 2 1 | 100 84 36 5 2 | 100 91 50 9 3 | 100 95 64 16 4 | 100 98 76 25 5 | 100 100 87 38 6 | 100 100 95 55 7 | 100 100 100 75 8 | 100 100 100 100 j@salty:~$ deal -b 4 4 13 4 in initial hand, 4 specials out of 13 total D/S | 0 1 2 3 4 ------------------------- 0 | 18 47 30 5 . 1 | 10 39 39 11 1 2 | 5 29 44 20 2 3 | 2 20 44 29 5 4 | 1 11 39 39 10 5 | . 5 30 47 18 6 | . 1 19 50 29 7 | . . 8 46 46 8 | . . . 31 69 9 | . . . . 100 j@salty:~$ deal -b 4 -g 4 13 4 in initial hand, 4 specials out of 13 total D/S | 0 1 2 3 4 ------------------------- 0 | 100 82 35 5 . 1 | 100 90 51 12 1 2 | 100 95 66 22 2 3 | 100 98 78 34 5 4 | 100 99 88 49 10 5 | 100 100 95 65 18 6 | 100 100 99 80 29 7 | 100 100 100 92 46 8 | 100 100 100 100 69 9 | 100 100 100 100 100 You're probably interested in the first row, which gives starting hand probabilities. Probability of seeing exactly one with 3/12: 51% Probability of seeing at least one with 3/12: 75% Probability of seeing exactly one with 4/13: 47% Probability of seeing at least one with 4/13: 82% cheers, -jakob